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La weather7/12/2023 ![]() ![]() Los Angeles and Ventura counties can expect the most rainfall. Two to 4 inches of rain could fall across most of the area, with some mountain areas receiving 4 to 8 inches. ![]() The storm's peak intensity is expected to deliver the heaviest rain Thursday morning. The rain will increase steadily, with downpours continuing into Thursday and reaching an inch per hour in some locations. Rainfall will range from one-tenth to a quarter-inch per hour in some areas early Wednesday. The heaviest rain will be overnight into Thursday morning after scattered showers Wednesday. ![]() Be prepared! #CAwx #LArain #atmosphericriver /LJtBejuXLd- NWS Los Angeles JanuWhen will the heaviest rain arrive in Southern California? Late tonight through Thu morning will be the focus for the heaviest rain. Here is our forecast for rain timing and intensity for each county in 6 hour blocks through Friday. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 July 2023.You may be asking "when is it going to rain in my area?" A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. ![]() Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site ( El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month ( 56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5☌), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0☌). Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions. Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia. For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive, reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5☌: Niño-3.4 was +0.8☌, Niño-3 was +1.1☌, and Niño1+2 was +2.3☌. In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion HomeĮNSO Alert System Status: El Niño AdvisoryĮl Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. ![]()
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